Swedish household consumption decreased in March 2023 compared to the previous month, according to the latest statistics from the Swedish Central Bureau of Statistics (SCB). Seasonally-adjusted data showed a decrease of 1.1% in consumption, while calendar-adjusted figures and fixed prices revealed a 4% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In Q1 2023, household consumption decreased by 1.8% in fixed prices and calendar-adjusted figures compared to the same period in the previous year.
The retail sector was the industry that had the most negative impact on household consumption, specifically the retail sale of a wide range of goods, particularly food and drink, which decreased by 7.8% in fixed prices compared to the same period in the previous year.
On the other hand, the sector that had a positive impact on household consumption was primarily housing, electricity, gas and heating, which increased by 2.1% in fixed prices compared to the same period in the previous year. The positive impact was mainly due to higher electricity and district heating consumption resulting from the colder weather compared to March 2022. It should be noted that household interest expenses are not considered consumption.
The figures for March 2023 are preliminary. Since the previous publication, consumption in February 2023 compared to January 2023 (seasonally adjusted) has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points to a decline of 0.8%. Consumption in February 2023 compared to the same period in the previous year (calendar-adjusted) has been revised down by 0.6 percentage points to a decline of 2.0%.
Consumers may change their consumption patterns due to price increases and opt to forego purchasing more expensive products, choosing instead to buy cheaper alternatives (known as substitution). Therefore, there is a risk that fixed-price index numbers may be slightly underestimated in the household consumption statistics. This is especially relevant for the retail sector that includes a wide range of goods, particularly food and drink, but it may also apply to other industries.
The monthly consumption indicator reflects the purposeful consumption according to the national accounts, i.e. household consumption expenditures, excluding foreign items. The consumption indicator is based on data from various sources, including SCB’s turnover statistics, energy statistics, statistics on newly built apartments, consumer price index, retail inventory survey, and business economy survey.
Turnover statistics are the main indicator for measuring monthly private consumption trends. They cover approximately 60% of the purposeful consumption. Volume indicators such as energy statistics and new apartments built are used to calculate private consumption of energy and housing. The consumer price index is used to convert consumption from current prices to fixed prices.