Total investments in oil and gas activities in Norway for the year 2023, including pipeline transportation, are now estimated at NOK 197.8 billion, marking a 5.3 percent increase compared to the previous quarter’s estimates. This adjustment reflects higher projections within the categories of fields on stream and field development, driven in part by increased prices for input factors in the industry. The latest investment estimate for 2023 indicates a significant growth rate of 18 percent compared to the corresponding estimate for 2022, reflecting the ongoing expansion in the sector.
The recent surge in growth can be attributed to the commencement of several new field developments in December of the previous year. While these projects incurred minimal costs in 2022, they are expected to contribute substantially to investments in 2023. The revised estimate for 2023 aligns with the growth rate projected in the previous survey, indicating a consistent upward trend.
According to data from Statistics Norway, investments in extraction and pipeline transportation, collected in the second quarter of the same year, are illustrated in Figure 1. The chart demonstrates the estimated investments in millions of current Norwegian Kroner (NOK) ranging from 154,381 to 241,387.
Furthermore, the estimate for oil and gas investments in 2024 has also seen an upward adjustment. The projected investments for 2024 now stand at NOK 181.9 billion, representing a substantial 39 percent increase compared to the estimate given for 2023 in the second quarter of 2022. This growth is primarily driven by the estimated field development costs, which are more than double the corresponding estimate for 2023, provided a year ago. It is noteworthy that development projects are included in the investment survey only upon the submission of a plan for development and operation (PDO) to the authorities.
Figure 2 showcases the investments in extraction and pipeline transport, with estimates provided at different points in time. The graph demonstrates the estimated investments in millions of current NOK, ranging from 130,601 to 197,783.
However, it is important to exercise caution when interpreting the estimated growth for 2024, as it is unlikely to match the extent of the growth experienced in 2023. Since few new projects are expected to be delivered in the coming years, the estimates for 2024 may not increase at the same rate as those for 2023, as depicted in Figure 3. The chart represents the contribution by cost category for the rate of change in extraction and pipeline transport between 2024 and 2023, calculated in percentages.
The estimates for fields on stream and exploration in 2024 are only marginally higher compared to the corresponding estimates for 2023. Additionally, the categories of pipeline transportation and shutdown and removal indicate a significant rise in investments for 2024. However, due to their initially low investment levels, their contribution to the overall increase is relatively modest. Notably, onshore activities have a lower estimate for 2024, resulting in a slight decline in the total estimate.
Figure 3 provides a visual representation of the contribution by cost category for the rate of change in extraction and pipeline transport between 2024 and 2023, demonstrating the percentages.
Reiterating the upward adjustment, the total investments in oil and gas activity for 2023, including pipeline transportation, now stand at NOK 197.8 billion, which is NOK 10 billion higher than the previous quarter’s estimate. The increase is primarily expected in the fields on stream and field development categories, with slight adjustments also seen in other investment areas. Notably, the increase occurs within already existing fields, despite the cancellation