Netherlands Economy Contracts by 0.3% in Q1 2023, Job Growth Reaches 49,000

According to the second estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2023 declined by 0.3 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The contraction in the first quarter is mainly attributed to a larger depletion of inventories. The second estimate of GDP is published approximately 85 days after the end of the quarter.

The growth rate for the first quarter of 2023 has been revised upward. In the initial estimate published on May 16, the decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 was 0.7 percent. The upward revision of GDP growth is primarily due to the trade balance and investments. The decline in goods exports was less severe, and services exports increased more strongly. Imports of goods and services were also revised upward, but to a lesser extent than exports.

The revision is partly due to new and more complete data for the first quarter of 2023 and the availability of new annual figures for 2021 and 2022, which are incorporated into the quarterly estimates. This process takes place every year in June.

The second estimate The second estimate is published 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, released 45 days after the end of a quarter, is based on the available information at that time. After the initial estimate, additional information becomes available on various sectors of the Dutch economy, such as construction, business services, hospitality, government, healthcare, and financial institutions, which is then incorporated into new calculations.

The absolute revision of the second estimate compared to the first estimate averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past five years (2018-2022). The two extremes were -0.3 and 0.7 percentage point, both occurring in 2021.

Revisions of annual and quarterly figures With the publication of the second estimate for the first quarter of 2023, revised annual figures for 2021 and 2022 are also published. Based on newly available information, the volume growth of the economy in 2022 has been adjusted from 4.5 to 4.3 percent. The economic growth in 2021 has been revised to 6.2 percent, compared to the previous estimate of 4.9 percent.

With each new calculation of GDP, Statistics Netherlands recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. Together with the adjustments of the quarterly estimates based on the new annual figures for 2021 and 2022, this has led to revisions of GDP growth in the quarters from 2017 to 2022.

Today, CBS not only publishes revised annual GDP figures but also revised figures for gross national income (GNI). The revisions of GNI are much larger than in previous years. The GNI for 2022 has been revised upward by 46.4 billion euros and for 2021 by 48.2 billion euros. This is not only due to an upward adjustment of nominal GDP but primarily to an upward revision of the net primary income balance with the rest of the world, including new information on the profits of listed multinational corporations.

Growth compared to the first quarter of 2022 Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the economy grew by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2023. This growth rate matches the initial estimate of 1.9 percent. The growth in the first quarter of 2023 can be attributed to investments, household consumption, and government consumption.

Number of jobs grows by 49,000 in the first quarter According to the second estimate by CBS, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 49,000 in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The initial estimate showed an increase of 63,000 jobs. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, the second estimate indicates an increase of 270,000 employee and self-employed jobs.

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2023/25/economie-krimpt-met-0-3-procent-in-eerste-kwartaal-2023


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