Exploring an Alternative Allocation Model for Early School Leaving: Revised Version

The Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science (OCW) is undertaking a revision of the financial allocation model for early school leaving (vsv in Dutch). In collaboration with the Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS), the Ministry of OCW has initiated an exploration to assess the feasibility of developing an indicator, based on characteristics available in CBS registrations, to estimate the extent of the early school leaving issue on a regional basis.

This current report focuses on the question of whether a model can be devised to estimate the likelihood of early school leaving for each student. It investigates the combination of characteristics that could best be utilized for this purpose. Separate models have been developed for secondary education (voortgezet onderwijs) and secondary vocational education (middelbaar beroepsonderwijs). The report solely addresses the individual-level likelihood of early school leaving. However, OCW allocates resources to combat early school leaving across different regions. The translation from individual likelihood to a regional estimate of the likelihood of early school leaving is the subject of further research. The outcomes, along with the method and data used to calculate the models, are detailed in this report.

This revised report replaces an earlier version where youth care was not accurately considered in the operationalization of psychosocial problems.