According to estimates released today, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production is expected to increase by 0.2% in August 2023 compared to July. Over the June-August period, industrial production shows an average growth of 0.4% compared to the preceding three months.
The monthly seasonally adjusted analysis reveals a positive trend only for consumer goods (+1.2%), while capital goods (-0.1%), intermediate goods (-0.9%), and energy (-2.2%) experience declines.
Considering calendar effects, the overall index shows a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% in August 2023 (adjusted for working days, with 22 days in both August 2023 and August 2022). The only sectors experiencing growth are the production of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (+18.3%) and the manufacture of transport equipment (+5.7%). Other sectors are in decline, with the most significant contractions observed in the wood, paper, and printing industry (-22.0%), mining (-14.0%), and textile, clothing, leather, and accessories industries (-12.8%).
Note: On October 10, 2023, at 10:50 AM, the full text was replaced due to a typographical error in the third paragraph on page 1.
Commentary: In August, industrial production shows a slight increase on a monthly basis, partially recovering from the previous month’s decline, thanks to positive performance in consumer goods. There is also moderate growth on a quarterly basis. On a yearly basis, adjusted for calendar effects, the overall index is declining in August for the seventh consecutive month. Indices for major industry groups are also in decline, with the exception of capital goods.