Italy’s September 2023 Inflation Update: Slight Dip in Consumer Prices

The National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reports a marginal shift in Italy’s consumer price index for September 2023:

  • Monthly Change: The National Consumer Price Index (NIC) reflects a 0.2% uptick, while the annual increase stands at 5.3%, a slight reduction from the previous month’s 5.4%.
  • Inflation Dynamics: The deceleration is primarily attributed to a slower annual pace in the prices of non-processed food (from +9.2% to +7.7%), processed food (from +10.0% to +8.9%), durable goods (from +4.6% to +4.0%), and, to a lesser extent, non-durable goods (from +5.2% to +4.7%), semi-durable goods (from +2.9% to +2.4%), and housing-related services (from +3.9% to +3.7%). This is partially offset by an acceleration in prices of unregulated energy (from +5.7% to +7.6%), a milder decline in regulated energy prices (from -29.6% to -27.9%), and an increased growth rate in transport-related service prices (from +1.2% to +3.8%).
  • Underlying Inflation: Excluding energy and fresh food, the underlying inflation rate continues to ease (from +4.8% to +4.6%), as does the rate excluding only energy (from +5.0% in August to +4.8%).
  • Sectoral Dynamics: Annual price growth for goods slows (from +6.3% to +6.0%), while services see an increase (from +3.6% to +4.1%), resulting in a narrower inflationary gap of -1.9 percentage points between the two sectors.
  • Other Highlights: Year-on-year, prices for food, household, and personal care items (from +9.4% to +8.1%) and high-frequency purchase products (from +6.9% to +6.6%) experience a slowdown.
  • Inflation Outlook: The accumulated inflation for 2023 is 5.7% for the general index and 5.2% for the underlying component.
  • Harmonized Index: The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (IPCA) records a 1.7% monthly increase and a 5.6% annual rise.
  • FOI Index: The National Consumer Price Index for blue-collar and white-collar workers shows a 0.2% monthly increase and a 5.1% annual change.
  • Q3 2023 Impact: Inflation’s impact is more significant on lower-income families, with a 6.7% increase, compared to those with higher spending levels at 5.6%. However, a more pronounced slowdown is observed for the former compared to the previous quarter.