Electricity Consumption Sobriety in France: A Climate-Sensitive Analysis

France’s electricity consumption is thermosensitive, closely tied to external temperatures and meteorological conditions. Key contributors to thermosensitive consumption include building temperature regulation (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) and the varied needs for public and private lighting throughout the year.

In an effort to enhance transparency and monitor sobriety measures, Enedis releases the following indicators for the preceding four weeks and the corresponding weeks of the past two years:

  1. Consumption by consumer category.
  2. Modeling of consumption at normal temperature by consumer category.
  3. Average realized temperatures.
  4. Average normal temperatures.

Three consumer categories are distinguished:

  • Residential: Individuals using a power equal to or less than 36 kVA.
  • Professionals: Over 4.5 million traders, artisans, healthcare professionals, small businesses, etc., using a power equal to or less than 36 kVA.
  • Businesses: Entities requiring power greater than 36 kVA, such as supermarkets, shopping malls, factories, etc.


  • Consumption Realized: Aggregation of electricity consumption data by consumer segment over four calendar weeks on the public distribution network operated by Enedis.
  • Consumption at Normal Temperature: The consumption that would have occurred during the same period without climate-related anomalies, assuming temperatures were similar to a 30-year average determined by Météo France.

Observations should consider that electricity consumption depends on the calendar, including types of days in the week, holidays, and specific periods (vacation periods, long weekends).

The evolution of consumption at normal temperature helps track sobriety measures. An illustrative interpretation example is provided:

  • Week X of 2022:
    • Consumption Realized: 6 TWh
    • Consumption at Normal Temperature: 5.5 TWh
    • Realized Temperature: 5°C
    • Normal Temperature: 10°C
  • Historical Average of Week X:
    • Consumption Realized: 5 TWh
    • Consumption at Normal Temperature: 6 TWh
    • Realized Temperature: 15°C
    • Normal Temperature: 10°C

In this hypothetical scenario, sobriety efforts would have saved 500 GWh on consumption at normal temperature, even with a significant increase in actual consumption compared to previous years.

For further insights, refer to the baseline electricity report published on our website here.

Modeling Methodology:

To measure and visualize the impact of sobriety measures, we estimate consumption at normal temperature, accounting for meteorological uncertainties but not seasonal or calendar effects. The modeling process involves:

  1. Creating and calibrating a prediction model, with temperature and calendar configuration as input variables.
  2. Estimating consumption at normal temperature, representing the model’s prediction when the input temperature is the normal temperature provided by Météo France.
  3. Estimating realized consumption at temperature, representing the model’s prediction when the input temperature is the realized temperature provided by Météo France.
  4. Creating the climate correction, the difference between the estimated consumption at normal temperature and the estimated consumption at realized temperature.
  5. Creating consumption at normal temperature, the sum of realized consumption and the climate correction.

This methodology, based on estimates, introduces margins of uncertainty on the order of a few percent.