Ida Wolden Bache, the Governor of Norges Bank, delivered a keynote speech on the intricacies of monetary policy and the fluctuating Norwegian krone at a seminar hosted by the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at BI Norwegian Business School.
Governor Bache highlighted the surprising 9% depreciation of the krone over the past year and its diverse impact on consumers and businesses. While consumers face increased prices for imported goods and pricier foreign vacations, some industries benefit from enhanced demand and improved profitability due to the weaker krone.
The central bank emphasized that while they don’t have a specific target for the exchange rate, it remains a crucial consideration due to its impact on inflation and economic activity. Bache discussed the complex interplay of factors affecting the krone, including interest rate differentials, risk premiums, and structural elements like productivity and the role of the petroleum sector.
In response to the recent currency depreciation, Bache noted the challenges for monetary policy, especially when inflation is already high. A weaker krone contributes to maintaining elevated inflation levels, complicating policy decisions.
The speech delved into the dynamics of how Norges Bank’s interest rate decisions influence the exchange rate, citing examples of market reactions to unexpected rate changes. Additionally, the Governor addressed the role of global factors, such as interest rate differentials with other countries, in influencing the krone’s value.
Bache acknowledged the unpredictable nature of currency markets, pointing out the difficulty in foreseeing changes in risk premiums. The Governor concluded by emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to flexible inflation targeting, maintaining trust in their ability to steer inflation back to the target level.
The seminar provided valuable insights into the complexities of managing currency challenges, especially in a global economic landscape marked by uncertainties and structural shifts.
https://www.norges-bank.no/aktuelt/nyheter-og-hendelser/Foredrag-og-taler/2023/09-11-2023-cme/