UK International Migration Research Progress Update – November 2023

The UK International Migration Research has released its latest update on international migration methods and research, with a focus on improvements to statistical estimation methods and the impact of revisions to provisional estimates.

1. Overview of Migration Statistics Transformation: The update highlights ongoing efforts to develop admin-based migration estimates (ABMEs) and enhance the granularity of migration statistics. Notable improvements have been made, including the introduction of a Dynamic Population Model (DPM) for comprehensive migration and population estimates at the national and local authority levels.

2. Improvements to Methods for Non-EU Migration Using Home Office Data: The report emphasizes enhancements in estimating non-EU migration using Home Office Borders and Immigration data. This includes refining methods for travel not matched to a visa and adjusting assumptions for provisional estimates of non-EU migration. Special attention has been given to the immigration early leaver adjustment, reflecting changing behaviors, especially among international students and workers.

3. Impact of Revisions to Provisional Estimates of Migration: The document discusses revisions made to provisional estimates published in May 2023 for the periods ending June 2022 and December 2022. Comprehensive tables outline the impact of revisions on non-EU immigration and emigration, as well as revisions to EU immigration and emigration. Noteworthy improvements include method enhancements, adjustments for asylum seekers and settled refugees, and updates to data sources.

In particular, revisions to non-EU immigration show a net increase of 105,000, while non-EU emigration estimates have been revised downward by 106,000. Revisions to EU immigration and emigration also reflect updated data and adjustments.

The report concludes with detailed tables showcasing the impact of adjustments on immigration and emigration estimates for the year ending June 2023, providing a transparent view of the methodology and adjustments applied.