Consumer and Business Confidence in Italy – November 2023

In November 2023, Italy observes diverse signals from the sentiment of economic operators: among consumers, there is an estimated increase in confidence (the index rises from 101.6 to 103.6), while the composite indicator of business confidence decreases from 103.9 to 103.4.

Consumers show a widespread improvement in opinions both on personal and general economic situations. The positive trend is reflected in the four indicators calculated monthly from the same components: personal and current climates record the most significant increases (the former goes from 98.6 to 101.2, and the latter from 97.4 to 99.8); the future climate increases from 107.7 to 109.3, and the economic climate rises from 110.5 to 111.0.

Regarding businesses, mixed signals emerge from the four economic sectors investigated: services and construction see a significant reduction in the confidence index (from 98.0 to 96.4 and from 163.8 to 161.3, respectively); in manufacturing and, especially, in trade, confidence is improving (the index rises, in order, from 96.1 to 96.6 and from 106.1 to 107.4).

Examining the components of the confidence indices, manufacturing experiences a slight decline in judgments on orders, while expectations for production grow, and inventories are considered to be slightly decreasing. In construction, a deterioration is estimated in all components.

Market services show negative dynamics for all components of the confidence index. Concerning retail trade, opinions on sales are worsening, and inventory stocks show a slight accumulation; expectations for sales, on the other hand, increase significantly, especially for large-scale distribution.