Italy – consumer prices

In November 2023, the National Consumer Price Index (NIC), excluding tobacco, is estimated to decrease by 0.5% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, there is a 0.7% increase compared to +1.7% in the previous month (preliminary estimate was +0.8%).

The deceleration in the inflation rate is primarily attributed to the prices of Energy, both unregulated (from -17.7% to -22.5%) and regulated (from -31.7% to -34.9%). Additionally, there is a minor slowdown in processed foods (from +7.3% to +5.8%), recreational, cultural, and personal care services (from +5.5% to +4.6%), and transport-related services (from +4.0% to +3.5%). These effects are partially offset by the acceleration in the prices of non-processed foods (from +4.9% to +5.6%).

Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, and inflation excluding only energy, continue to decelerate (both from +4.2% recorded in October to +3.6%).

After being neutral in October, the year-on-year dynamic of goods prices turns negative (to -1.4%), while services remain positive, though further slowing down (from +4.1% to +3.7%). This widens the inflation differential between the services and goods sectors (+5.1 percentage points, from +4.1 in October).

Year-on-year, prices of Food, household, and personal care (from +6.1% to +5.4%) and high-frequency purchase products (from +5.6% to +4.6%) continue to decelerate.

The monthly decrease in the overall index is mainly due to the prices of unregulated energy (-3.8%), recreational, cultural, and personal care services (-1.3%), transport-related services, and regulated energy (-0.7% each). These effects are partly compensated by the increase in the prices of non-processed foods (+0.8%).

The accumulated inflation for 2023 is +5.7% for the general index and +5.1% for the core component.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decreases by 0.6% on a monthly basis and increases by 0.6% on an annual basis, further decelerating from +1.8% in October (preliminary estimate was +0.7%).

The National Consumer Price Index for blue-collar and white-collar workers (FOI), excluding tobacco, records a 0.4% decrease on a monthly basis and a 0.7% increase on an annual basis.

Commentary: In November, inflation drops to 0.7%, returning to levels close to those of February 2021 (+0.6%). The further decline in the inflation rate is still influenced by the favorable trend in Energy prices, which in November show a sharp decline on a monthly basis. The slowing inflation is also due to the dynamics of prices for certain types of services (recreational, cultural, and personal care, and transport) and the new deceleration in Food prices (+5.8%), particularly the processed component, putting the brakes on the annual growth of “grocery shopping” prices (+5.4%). Finally, core inflation stands at +3.6% in November (from +4.2%).