A recent study by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) indicates that the number of households in France is projected to increase, though at a slower pace than before, between 2018 and 2050. Projections suggest that there could be between 32 and 36 million households in 2050, compared to 30 million in 2018 and 22 million in 1990. This growth, driven by changes in cohabitation patterns, is a response to the slowing population growth.
Under the central scenario, the average annual growth rate of households is expected to be 0.42% between 2018 and 2050, a deceleration from the previous decade. Factors influencing this growth include the effects of population growth, changes in demographic structure, and cohabitation patterns. The study anticipates a rise in single-adult or single-parent households, while the proportion of couples is expected to decrease.
The study highlights that the effect of population growth will slow due to the aging of the baby-boom generation, coupled with a decline in births. The demographic structure is projected to remain constant until 2030, contributing to an increase in households as the population ages.
However, regional disparities are expected. Between 2018 and 2050, thirteen departments are predicted to experience a significant decrease in the number of households, mainly located along the diagonal of low population density. Departments with high demographic growth will maintain a higher growth rate, but this dynamism is expected to diminish after 2030.
In summary, the study underscores a continuous evolution in the demographic landscape of France, with significant implications for urban planning, social policies, and other areas related to household structures.