Retail trade employment is projected to decline by 2.5 percent over the 2024–2034 period, driven largely by a shift toward e‑commerce. Grocery sales account for 34 percent of the 2024 retail share, with self‑checkout technologies expected to rise 34 percent in 2025, and a 6.5 percent increase in grocery sales anticipated in 2024. Warehouse automation is poised to reduce staffing needs for general merchandise and grocery retailers. Cashiers, salespersons, and general merchandise workers face the greatest risk from automation, with a projected 14.6 percent decline in employment. The article emphasizes that grocery sales will remain the largest portion of revenue for general merchandise retailers, yet automation and e‑commerce will continue to erode traditional employment roles.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Materials reproduced from www.bls.gov.
No endorsement by BLS is implied.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2026/article/industry-and-occupational-employment-projections-overview.htm
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