ECB’s second‑quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) shows a marked upward revision in headline HICP inflation expectations for 2026, rising to 2.7% from 1.8% in the previous round, and a smaller increase for 2027 to 2.1%. Core inflation (HICPX) expectations also rose to 2.2% in both years. Longer‑term inflation forecasts for 2030 remain at 2.0%. Real GDP growth expectations were cut to 1.0% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027, reflecting the anticipated negative impact of the Middle East conflict. Unemployment rate forecasts stayed unchanged at 6.3% for 2026. The survey indicates that the conflict’s inflationary and growth‑dampening effects are expected to be short‑lived. The ECB’s staff projections largely align with these outlooks.
© European Central Bank, 2025.
Summary derived from the ECB website (https://www.ecb.europa.eu ).
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