China’s trade surplus has surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, exceeding 1 % of the rest‑of‑world GDP, a level never seen since the early 2000s. Since 2018, China’s share of global exports has risen from 13.1 % to 16.3 %, while its import share has grown only modestly, creating an asymmetric trade shock. The expansion is driven by a shift toward capital‑and‑technology‑intensive exports such as electric vehicles, batteries and advanced machinery, bringing China’s export basket closer to that of advanced economies. At its current scale, the surplus amplifies global production adjustments and has prompted advanced economies to adopt tariffs and other protective measures. These dynamics underscore the broader implications of China’s ongoing export growth for global trade patterns.
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