Australia recorded fewer deaths than expected in 2024, with a negative excess mortality of 1.7 %, and again in 2025, with a 2.0 % reduction. The new Australian Bureau of Statistics methodology incorporates COVID‑19 as a persistent contributor to deaths, using a Generalised Additive Model and a rolling seven‑year baseline that excludes the 2022 outlier year. Tasmania was the only jurisdiction that registered a slightly higher than expected mortality in 2024, at 0.4 %. In 2025 all states and territories reported lower mortality, ranging from 1.3 % in New South Wales to 10.6 % in the Northern Territory. These provisional figures reflect deaths registered through 28 December 2025.
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This article is a summary of content originally published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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