The ECB Blog analysis highlights why energy prices rose less during the Iran war compared to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, despite larger supply disruptions. Military strikes in late 2026 disrupted 14 million barrels per day (mb/d) of global oil supply, yet prices only rose 29% to $94 per barrel by early June. This contrasts with a 30% price spike following Ukraine’s war, despite a smaller 1 mb/d supply shock. Factors include higher oil inventories (2.5 mb/d surplus), stronger demand flexibility, and coordinated oil releases by the IEA. Gas prices also showed muted reactions, with TTF prices rising 53% compared to historical expectations of 81%. The analysis attributes this to improved market buffers, reduced LNG competition, and Europe’s diversified energy sources. Both crises underscored the role of initial market conditions in shaping price responses.
© European Central Bank, 2025.
Summary derived from the ECB website (https://www.ecb.europa.eu ).
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