Retail fuel prices in the euro area surged in 2026 following the Middle East conflict, driving energy inflation. Crude oil prices rose sharply, peaking at $138 per barrel in April, with diesel prices at pumps reaching €2.18 per litre by early April—up 34% from late February. The pass-through of oil price increases to retail prices was swift and complete, though relative price increases were muted due to fixed components like taxes and excise duties. Refining margins amplified the impact of oil price shocks, contributing €0.35 to diesel prices in July. The conflict’s escalation disrupted global refining capacity, widening margins and boosting prices. Temporary tax cuts eased some pressure, but refining costs remained a key driver. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for energy rose to 10.8% in May 2026 before declining to 8.5% in June.
© European Central Bank, 2025.
Summary derived from the ECB website (https://www.ecb.europa.eu ).
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