The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that longer-term inflation expectations remain broadly anchored despite recent energy price shocks. Analysis of consumer, firm, and professional forecaster surveys indicates that average inflation expectations align with price stability targets. While consumers and firms showed more pronounced reactions to the Middle East energy shock, longer-term expectations revised upward only slightly. Professional forecasters and firms maintained stable expectations, with firms’ projections declining more visibly. The ECB notes that disagreement among agents and uncertainty surrounding expectations remain contained, supporting higher-moment anchoring. Although some metrics show slight deviations from 2022-2023 levels, overall, inflation expectations have stabilized or moderated. The ECB emphasizes continued monitoring, as some agents may still exhibit heightened sensitivity to recent inflation trends due to past experiences.
© European Central Bank, 2025.
Summary derived from the ECB website (https://www.ecb.europa.eu ).
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