Germany’s Hospitality Industry Anticipates 2.6% Real Growth in 2023 Compared to 2022

According to estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany’s hospitality industry is expected to witness a 2.6% increase in real (price-adjusted) turnover in 2023 compared to 2022. The nominal (non-price-adjusted) turnover is projected to surge by 9.6% during the same period.

The yearly comparison reveals an overall positive trend, primarily attributed to substantial real growth at the beginning of the year. In the first quarter of 2023, real turnover was 15.9% higher than the same period in 2022, significantly impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, the pace of real growth decelerated throughout the rest of 2023, except for September, with real turnover lower than the respective months in 2022. This deceleration is attributed to the notably increased price levels in the hospitality industry, rising by 8.1% in 2023 compared to 2022, driven by increased prices for food, personnel, and energy.

In comparison to the pre-pandemic year 2019, real turnover in the hospitality industry in 2023 was 9.9% lower, while nominal turnover increased by 9.8%.

Key Points:

  • Monthly Performance (November 2023):
    • Real turnover increased by 2.0% compared to October 2023.
    • Nominal turnover rose by 2.5% compared to the previous month.
    • Real turnover decreased by 0.1% compared to November 2022.
    • Nominal turnover increased by 5.5% compared to the same period last year.
  • Sectoral Performance:
    • Hotels and other accommodation providers experienced a real turnover increase of 2.6% in November 2023 compared to October 2023.
    • Gastronomy saw a 1.1% real increase in turnover in November 2023 compared to the previous month.
  • Yearly Perspective (November 2023):
    • Real turnover in November 2023 was significantly lower (minus 13.3%) than in November 2019, the comparative month before the pandemic.
    • Nominal turnover, in contrast, was 6.8% higher.

Methodological Notes:

The estimation of real and nominal turnover for the full year 2023 is based on the available hospitality industry turnover data from January to November 2023, with December 2023 figures estimated. The estimate considers revisions in the economic statistics for the hospitality industry starting from the reporting month of March 2023, as significant revisions occurred in the preceding months, expected to continue throughout the rest of 2023. Hence, the estimation of the yearly result is subject to uncertainties.

In interpreting economic indicators, it is essential to consider different comparison periods. The focus is on comparing seasonally and calendar-adjusted values to the previous month/quarter to assess short-term economic trends. The calendar-adjusted year-on-year comparison serves a longer-term level comparison, independent of seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects.

The hospitality industry statistics may diverge from tourism statistics, especially in summer months, due to factors such as the timing misalignment of turnover in accommodation establishments and overnight stays. Methodological differences can also contribute to disparate results.

For additional information:

  • The explanation of the statistics and quality reports on the hospitality industry and tourism provide further insights.
  • Long time series for monthly hospitality industry statistics can be accessed in the tables on turnover in the hospitality industry (45213) in the GENESIS-Online database.
  • Tables with current results on turnover and employment in the hospitality industry are available on the “Economic Indicators” topic page.