The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has released extrapolated figures indicating that 83,503 people died in Germany in April 2023. These numbers closely align with the median mortality rate recorded between 2019 and 2022, representing an increase of approximately 1%. In March, mortality figures were 8% higher due to a surge in respiratory diseases. This coincided with the detection of an influenza wave, as reported in the Weekly Influenza Report by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), which extended until the beginning of April. Notably, mortality figures returned to levels comparable to previous years after the decline of the influenza wave.
The mortality figures for 2023 in Germany, categorized by month, demonstrate relative differences from the median of 2019-2022. While January experienced an increase of 14%, February saw a marginal rise of 1%. In March, there was an 8% increase in mortality, which then stabilized in April with a 1% rise compared to previous years.
Across Europe, mortality figures in April remained largely unremarkable. The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring, which extrapolates data using its own excess mortality approach, reported low excess mortality in the Netherlands, Italy, and Finland for at least one week. In the rest of Europe, no excess mortality was observed.
Methodological considerations accompany the mortality figures for Germany. The ad hoc evaluation for 2022 and 2023 is based on first provisional data, which undergo ongoing verification processes. The Federal Statistical Office employs an estimation model to provide timely mortality figures during the Covid-19 pandemic, although data completeness may vary due to reporting regulations and procedures across registrar’s offices.
It is essential to interpret the mortality trends from March 2020 in light of the measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. Besides preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and changes in behavior may have temporarily impacted the number of deaths from other infectious diseases, such as the flu. Therefore, fluctuations in mortality rates may reflect various causes and factors.
Further evaluation of mortality development incorporates population data, considering demographic changes such as the aging population. Final results will be available in the middle of the subsequent year.
For additional information, the Federal Statistical Office offers graphical overviews of mortality figures across all Länder on its website. More insights into mortality figures and related topics, including the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on population projections, can be found on the Federal Statistical Office’s “Deaths, life expectancy” and “Corona statistics” webpages.
As the Covid-19 situation continues to evolve, monitoring mortality figures remains crucial in understanding population dynamics and shaping appropriate policies and responses.
Note: This article is based on the press release No. 191 published by the Federal Statistical Office on May 16, 2023.